Olive Oil: Trends and Production Forecast for 2024/2025

Initial estimates for the 2024/25 season indicate an increase in global olive oil production, exceeding the 2.5 million tons from the previous year. Production is expected to reach 3.1 million tons, which would put it on par with the average of the last six seasons, although recent shortages are having an impact. Most major producing countries, led by Spain, are showing recovery, except for Italy.

Spain Sees Clear Recovery

According to recent studies, current projections from industry experts suggest that Spain is on track to lead production with a harvest that could approach 1.3 million tons, representing an increase of about 52% compared to the 853 thousand tons previously obtained. Although Spain has not yet fully returned to the numbers seen before the challenging past two years, it is expected to regain significant momentum in production and replenishment.

Tunisia will experience a significant increase in olive oil production, with projections pointing to a harvest of up to 325 thousand tons, surpassing the 200 thousand tons from the 2023/24 season. However, some experts predict production of 270 thousand tons.

In contrast, Italy faces serious challenges due to drought and high temperatures, especially in its southern region. International experts emphasize that Italian producers could suffer a marked decrease, with an estimated production between 170 thousand and 200 thousand tons, a figure well below the 329 thousand tons of the previous cycle.

Greece, on the other hand, is benefiting from favorable weather conditions, which could lead to an increase in its olive oil yield to a range of 230 to 250 thousand tons, contrasting with the current 155 thousand tons.

As for Portugal, prospects are promising, as its olive oil production is expected to rise from 158 thousand tons to about 170 thousand tons in the next season.

Lastly, Morocco faces a less favorable forecast, with projections suggesting a dramatic drop in its harvest, potentially reducing it to half of the 106 thousand tons recorded previously.

How Will Prices Evolve in the Market?

Between January and September of 2024, the prices of extra virgin olive oil have increased by more than 30% in both Italy and Spain, compared to the same period in 2023. This increase adds to the significant one from the previous year when prices reached record figures in the main producing countries. By the end of the summer, there was a downward trend in prices, partly driven by the positive production outlook in Spain.

Although it is difficult to predict what will happen next, all this suggests that in general, the prices of olive oil at the source will likely remain stable or even rise as the 2024/2025 campaign progresses.

MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2024/2025 AND COMPARISON WITH THE PREVIOUS CAMPAIGN

Olive oil prices at the source.

Olive oil prices in supermarkets.

Buying and selling olive oil wholesale (in bulk and bottled).